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Kariana Erden vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
CANC
00:00
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
5/8/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 31Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kariana Erden58%
×Draw24%
Vitosha Bistritsa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.69
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.82

Kariana Erden creates 106% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.71

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.76

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
82%
Kariana Erden or Vitosha Bistritsa
76%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
42%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
32%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
82%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
50%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
24%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
56%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
20%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
76%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 0.71 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
58%
level
24%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
18%

Kariana Erden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kariana Erden face Vitosha Bistritsa (Second League)

Second League returns with Kariana Erden hosting Vitosha Bistritsa. Match starts May 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kariana Erden host Vitosha Bistritsa at Stadion Kariana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.