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Kariana Erden vs Pomorie — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
FT
3 – 0
Pomorie
Pomorie
2/16/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kariana Erden62%
×Draw22%
Pomorie16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.92
Pomorie
0.85

Kariana Erden creates 126% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Pomorie
0.77

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Pomorie
2.23

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Pomorie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Pomorie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
84%
Kariana Erden or Pomorie
78%
Draw or Pomorie
38%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
37%
Pomorie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
85%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
57%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
30%
Pomorie 1+ goals
57%
Pomorie 2+ goals
21%
Pomorie 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
80%
Pomorie (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Pomorie away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Pomorie defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pomorie attack 0.77 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
62%
level
22%
Pomorie scores more
16%

Kariana Erden at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariana Erden vs Pomorie

Kariana Erden beat Pomorie 3-0 in Second League on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kariana in Erden.