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Kariana Erden vs Neftochimic Burgas — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
CANC
16:00
Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
3/20/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kariana Erden64%
×Draw20%
Neftochimic Burgas16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
2.07
Neftochimic Burgas
0.91

Kariana Erden creates 127% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Neftochimic Burgas
0.88

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Neftochimic Burgas
2.53

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
84%
Kariana Erden or Neftochimic Burgas
80%
Draw or Neftochimic Burgas
36%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
40%
Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
87%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
61%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
34%
Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
60%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
23%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
80%
Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.07

Neftochimic Burgas attack 0.88 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
64%
level
20%
Neftochimic Burgas scores more
16%

Kariana Erden at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kariana Erden host Neftochimic Burgas

March 20, 2021: Kariana Erden take on Neftochimic Burgas in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kariana Erden host Neftochimic Burgas at Stadion Kariana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.