Kári 5–1 Skallagrímur: Result & Stats | Cup

Kári

5 – 1

Skallagrímur

5/1/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundAkraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kári64%

×Draw16%

Skallagrímur20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KáriExpected goals in this matchSkallagrímur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

1.90

Kári

3.31

Skallagrímur

1.90

Kári creates 74% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

4.30

creates per match

3.00

0.80

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Kári

4.30

Skallagrímur

3.00

allows per match

Kári

0.80

Skallagrímur

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kári+0.00on par

Skallagrímur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kári ↓

Skallagrímur →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Kári or draw

80%

Kári or Skallagrímur

84%

Draw or Skallagrímur

36%

Winning margin

Kári wins by 2+

45%

Skallagrímur wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kári 1+ goals

96%

Kári 2+ goals

83%

Kári 3+ goals

62%

Skallagrímur 1+ goals

85%

Skallagrímur 2+ goals

56%

Skallagrímur 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Kári (draw refunded)

76%

Skallagrímur (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kári at home — creates 4.30, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Skallagrímur away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kári attack 4.30 + Skallagrímur defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.31

Skallagrímur attack 3.00 + Kári defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kári scores more

64%

level

16%

Skallagrímur scores more

20%

Kári at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff