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Kári vs KFS — Cup 2019

Kári
Kári
FT
7 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KFS
KFS
S. Thorsteinsson 90+1' (pen)
M. Asgeirsson 87'
T. Thordarson 80', 68'
H. Bergmann Gardarsson 55', 6'
B. Sigmundsson 52'
D. Sigmarsson 34'
3/29/2025CupCup · 1st RoundAkraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kári88%
×Draw8%
KFS5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kári
4.26
KFS
1.01

Kári creates 322% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kári
4.30
KFS
1.22

allows per match

Kári
0.80
KFS
4.22

finishing

Kári+0.00on par
KFS+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kári ↓

KFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Kári or draw
95%
Kári or KFS
92%
Draw or KFS
12%

Winning margin

Kári wins by 2+
74%
KFS wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kári 1+ goals
98%
Kári 2+ goals
91%
Kári 3+ goals
76%
KFS 1+ goals
64%
KFS 2+ goals
27%
KFS 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kári (draw refunded)
95%
KFS (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kári at home — creates 4.30, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

KFS away — creates 1.22, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kári attack 4.30 + KFS defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 4.26

KFS attack 1.22 + Kári defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Kári scores more
88%
level
8%
KFS scores more
5%

Kári at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Kári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Bergmann Gardarsson
34'
D. Sigmarsson
52'
B. Sigmundsson
55'
H. Bergmann Gardarsson
68'
T. Thordarson
80'
T. Thordarson
87'
M. Asgeirsson
90+1'
S. ThorsteinssonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kári vs KFS

Kári beat KFS 7-1 in Cup on March 29, 2025.

Goals: H. Bergmann Gardarsson (6', 55'), D. Sigmarsson (34'), B. Sigmundsson (52'), T. Thordarson (68', 80'), M. Asgeirsson (87'), S. Thorsteinsson (90+1' pen).

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.