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Kári vs Höttur — 2. Deild 2018

Kári
Kári
FT
2 – 2
Höttur
Höttur
9/2/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 19Akraneshöllin (Akranes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kári56%
×Draw19%
Höttur25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kári
2.42
Höttur
1.57

Kári creates 54% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kári
2.03
Höttur
1.18

allows per match

Kári
1.97
Höttur
2.82

finishing

Kári+0.00on par
Höttur+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kári ↓

Höttur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kári or draw
75%
Kári or Höttur
81%
Draw or Höttur
44%

Winning margin

Kári wins by 2+
35%
Höttur wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kári 1+ goals
91%
Kári 2+ goals
69%
Kári 3+ goals
43%
Höttur 1+ goals
79%
Höttur 2+ goals
46%
Höttur 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kári (draw refunded)
69%
Höttur (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kári at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

Höttur away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kári attack 2.03 + Höttur defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.42

Höttur attack 1.18 + Kári defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kári scores more
56%
level
19%
Höttur scores more
25%

Kári at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kári 2 – 2 Höttur

Kári and Höttur drew 2-2 in 2. Deild on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Akraneshöllin (Akranes).