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Karhu-Futis vs ToVe — Suomen Cup 2018

Karhu-Futis
Karhu-Futis
FT
1 – 3
ToVe
ToVe
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundPorin Urheilukeskus tn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karhu-Futis8%
×Draw11%
ToVe81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karhu-Futis
1.33
ToVe
4.00

ToVe creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Karhu-Futis
1.67
ToVe
3.33

allows per match

Karhu-Futis
4.67
ToVe
1.00

finishing

Karhu-Futis+0.00on par
ToVe+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karhu-Futis ↓

ToVe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Karhu-Futis or draw
19%
Karhu-Futis or ToVe
89%
Draw or ToVe
92%

Winning margin

Karhu-Futis wins by 2+
3%
ToVe wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Karhu-Futis 1+ goals
74%
Karhu-Futis 2+ goals
38%
Karhu-Futis 3+ goals
15%
ToVe 1+ goals
98%
ToVe 2+ goals
90%
ToVe 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Karhu-Futis (draw refunded)
9%
ToVe (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karhu-Futis at home — creates 1.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

ToVe away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karhu-Futis attack 1.67 + ToVe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

ToVe attack 3.33 + Karhu-Futis defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 4.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Karhu-Futis scores more
8%
level
11%
ToVe scores more
81%

ToVe at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "ToVe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karhu-Futis vs ToVe

ToVe beat Karhu-Futis 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Porin Urheilukeskus tn in Pori.