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Karela vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tamale City
Tamale City
9/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karela55%
×Draw29%
Tamale City16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.33
Tamale City
0.57

Karela creates 133% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Karela
1.43
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Karela or draw
84%
Karela or Tamale City
71%
Draw or Tamale City
45%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
27%
Tamale City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
74%
Karela 2+ goals
38%
Karela 3+ goals
15%
Tamale City 1+ goals
43%
Tamale City 2+ goals
11%
Tamale City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
78%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.73 · 111 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.43 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Karela scores more
55%
level
29%
Tamale City scores more
16%

Karela at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Karela 1–0 Tamale City

Karela beat Tamale City 1-0 in Premier League on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.