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Karela vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Samartex
Samartex
6/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Karela52%
×Draw30%
Samartex19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.27
Samartex
0.64

Karela creates 98% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 68 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Samartex
0.54

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Samartex
1.12

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Karela or draw
81%
Karela or Samartex
70%
Draw or Samartex
48%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
24%
Samartex wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
72%
Karela 2+ goals
36%
Karela 3+ goals
14%
Samartex 1+ goals
47%
Samartex 2+ goals
14%
Samartex 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
73%
Samartex (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Samartex attack 0.54 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karela scores more
52%
level
30%
Samartex scores more
19%

Karela at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Karela 4–2 Samartex

Karela beat Samartex 4-2 in Premier League on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex in Nalerigu.