Karela 1–0 Inter Allies: Result & Stats

Karela

FT

1 – 0

Inter Allies

D. Taylor 76' (pen)

11/22/2020

Premier League · Round 2Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Karela56%

×Draw27%

Inter Allies18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarelaExpected goals in this matchInter Allies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.69

Karela

1.46

Inter Allies

0.69

Karela creates 112% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

1.42

creates per match

0.64

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Karela

1.42

Inter Allies

0.64

allows per match

Karela

0.74

Inter Allies

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karela+0.00on par

Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Inter Allies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw

82%

Karela or Inter Allies

73%

Draw or Inter Allies

44%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+

28%

Inter Allies wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals

77%

Karela 2+ goals

43%

Karela 3+ goals

18%

Inter Allies 1+ goals

50%

Inter Allies 2+ goals

15%

Inter Allies 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)

76%

Inter Allies (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 110 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.42 + Inter Allies defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Inter Allies attack 0.64 + Karela defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Karela scores more

56%

level

27%

Inter Allies scores more

18%

Karela at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Seidu

53'

H. Musah

55'

M. Kporvi← M. Kporvi

60'

F. Osei← F. Osei

71'

R. Lamptey

73'

S. Nafui← S. Nafui

74'

76'

D. TaylorPenalty

77'

P. Abanga← P. Abanga

81'

N. Abdulai← N. Abdulai

83'

A. Isah

88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff