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Karela vs Hohoe United — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hohoe United
Hohoe United
2/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Naa Sheriga Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Karela52%
×Draw29%
Hohoe United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.28
Hohoe United
0.64

Karela creates 100% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 13 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Hohoe United
0.54

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Hohoe United
1.15

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Hohoe United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Hohoe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Karela or draw
81%
Karela or Hohoe United
71%
Draw or Hohoe United
48%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
24%
Hohoe United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
72%
Karela 2+ goals
37%
Karela 3+ goals
14%
Hohoe United 1+ goals
47%
Hohoe United 2+ goals
14%
Hohoe United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
74%
Hohoe United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Hohoe United away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Hohoe United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Hohoe United attack 0.54 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Karela scores more
52%
level
29%
Hohoe United scores more
19%

Karela at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karela vs Hohoe United

Karela beat Hohoe United 1-0 in Premier League on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Naa Sheriga Sports Centre in Nalerigu.