Karela 2–1 Bechem United: Result & Stats

Karela

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bechem United

3/23/2025

Premier League · Round 25Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Karela54%

×Draw26%

Bechem United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarelaExpected goals in this matchBechem United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.77

Karela

1.48

Bechem United

0.77

Karela creates 92% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

0.73

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Karela

1.41

Bechem United

0.82

allows per match

Karela

0.73

Bechem United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karela+0.00on par

Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Bechem United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Karela or draw

80%

Karela or Bechem United

74%

Draw or Bechem United

46%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+

28%

Bechem United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals

77%

Karela 2+ goals

43%

Karela 3+ goals

19%

Bechem United 1+ goals

54%

Bechem United 2+ goals

18%

Bechem United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)

73%

Bechem United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Bechem United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Karela scores more

54%

level

26%

Bechem United scores more

20%

Karela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff