Karela 2–0 Asante Kotoko: Result & Stats | Cup

Karela

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Asante Kotoko

2/12/2024

Cup · Round of 16Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karela57%

×Draw25%

Asante Kotoko18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarelaExpected goals in this matchAsante Kotoko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.75

Karela

1.58

Asante Kotoko

0.75

Karela creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

1.17

0.33

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Karela

2.33

Asante Kotoko

1.17

allows per match

Karela

0.33

Asante Kotoko

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karela+0.00on par

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Asante Kotoko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Karela or draw

82%

Karela or Asante Kotoko

75%

Draw or Asante Kotoko

43%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+

31%

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals

79%

Karela 2+ goals

47%

Karela 3+ goals

21%

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

53%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

17%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)

76%

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 2.33 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Asante Kotoko attack 1.17 + Karela defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karela scores more

57%

level

25%

Asante Kotoko scores more

18%

Karela at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff