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Asante Kotoko vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Karela
Karela
11/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Asante Kotoko55%
×Draw28%
Karela17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.39
Karela
0.63

Asante Kotoko creates 121% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Karela
1.31

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
83%
Asante Kotoko or Karela
72%
Draw or Karela
45%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
28%
Karela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
75%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
40%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
16%
Karela 1+ goals
47%
Karela 2+ goals
13%
Karela 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
77%
Karela (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Karela attack 0.61 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
55%
level
28%
Karela scores more
17%

Asante Kotoko at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asante Kotoko vs Karela

Asante Kotoko beat Karela 4-2 in Premier League on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.