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Karela vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
0 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
11/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Karela44%
×Draw31%
Asante Kotoko25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.15
Asante Kotoko
0.79

Karela creates 46% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

creates per match

Karela
1.42
Asante Kotoko
0.85

allows per match

Karela
0.74
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Karela or draw
75%
Karela or Asante Kotoko
69%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
56%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
19%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
68%
Karela 2+ goals
32%
Karela 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
55%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
19%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
64%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 110 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.42 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.15

Asante Kotoko attack 0.85 + Karela defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karela scores more
44%
level
31%
Asante Kotoko scores more
25%

Karela at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
I. Donkor
45'
60'
R. Berko← R. Berko
63'
R. Boadu
68'
M. Sherif← M. Sherif
70'
F. Gama← E. Keyekeh
80'
V. Sando← V. Sando
85'
F. Mbella← F. Mbella
90+1'
R. Abalora

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karela vs Asante Kotoko

Karela and Asante Kotoko drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.