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Karela vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
4/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Karela51%
×Draw28%
Aduana Stars21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.33
Aduana Stars
0.74

Karela creates 80% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 110 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Karela or draw
79%
Karela or Aduana Stars
72%
Draw or Aduana Stars
49%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
24%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
74%
Karela 2+ goals
38%
Karela 3+ goals
15%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
52%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
17%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
71%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Karela scores more
51%
level
28%
Aduana Stars scores more
21%

Karela at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Karela 2–0 Aduana Stars

Karela beat Aduana Stars 2-0 in Premier League on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.