Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karela vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
9/22/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Karela57%
×Draw26%
Accra Lions16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.49
Accra Lions
0.66

Karela creates 126% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 67 away

creates per match

Karela
1.41
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw
84%
Karela or Accra Lions
74%
Draw or Accra Lions
43%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
30%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
77%
Karela 2+ goals
44%
Karela 3+ goals
19%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
48%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
14%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
78%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.73 · 109 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.41 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karela scores more
57%
level
26%
Accra Lions scores more
16%

Karela at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Karela 1–1 Accra Lions

Karela and Accra Lions drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Naa Sheriga Sports Complex in Nalerigu.