Kardemir Karabukspor 1–3 Elazığspor: Result & Stats

Kardemir Karabukspor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Elazığspor

2/24/2019

1. Lig · Round 23Dr. Necmettin Şeyhoğlu Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kardemir Karabukspor27%

×Draw23%

Elazığspor50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kardemir KarabuksporExpected goals in this matchElazığspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.82

Kardemir Karabukspor

1.27

Elazığspor

1.82

Elazığspor creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

0.41

creates per match

1.12

2.53

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Kardemir Karabukspor

0.41

Elazığspor

1.12

allows per match

Kardemir Karabukspor

2.53

Elazığspor

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Elazığspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kardemir Karabukspor ↓

Elazığspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kardemir Karabukspor or draw

50%

Kardemir Karabukspor or Elazığspor

77%

Draw or Elazığspor

73%

Winning margin

Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+

11%

Elazığspor wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals

72%

Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals

36%

Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals

14%

Elazığspor 1+ goals

84%

Elazığspor 2+ goals

54%

Elazığspor 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)

35%

Elazığspor (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kardemir Karabukspor at home — creates 0.41, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

Elazığspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.41 + Elazığspor defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kardemir Karabukspor scores more

27%

level

23%

Elazığspor scores more

50%

Elazığspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Elazığspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff