Karcag SE 1–1 Salgótarjáni BTC: Result & Stats

Karcag SE

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salgótarjáni BTC

4/21/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 25Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Karcag SE60%

×Draw22%

Salgótarjáni BTC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karcag SEExpected goals in this matchSalgótarjáni BTC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.97

Karcag SE

1.95

Salgótarjáni BTC

0.97

Karcag SE creates 101% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

1.98

creates per match

0.86

1.08

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Karcag SE

1.98

Salgótarjáni BTC

0.86

allows per match

Karcag SE

1.08

Salgótarjáni BTC

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw

82%

Karcag SE or Salgótarjáni BTC

78%

Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC

40%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+

36%

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals

86%

Karcag SE 2+ goals

58%

Karcag SE 3+ goals

31%

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals

62%

Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals

25%

Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)

77%

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.95

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Karcag SE scores more

60%

level

22%

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more

18%

Karcag SE at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff