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Karcag SE vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Karcag SE
Karcag SE
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
M. Juhasz 90'
T. Gabor 86'
N. Nagy 71', 61', 18'
J. Maruscsak 44'
A. Vincze 9'
9/25/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 9Balmazújvárosi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Karcag SE48%
×Draw23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karcag SE
1.75
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.31

Karcag SE creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 38 away

creates per match

Karcag SE
1.98
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Karcag SE
1.08
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw
71%
Karcag SE or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
77%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
52%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+
26%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals
83%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
52%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
25%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
73%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
38%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)
62%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karcag SE scores more
48%
level
23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
29%

Karcag SE at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Vincze
18'
N. Nagy
44'
J. Maruscsak
61'
N. Nagy
71'
N. Nagy
86'
T. Gabor
90'
M. Juhasz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Karcag SE 6 – 1 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Karcag SE beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 6-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 25, 2022.

Goals: A. Vincze (9'), N. Nagy (18', 61', 71'), J. Maruscsak (44'), T. Gabor (86'), M. Juhasz (90').

The match was played at Balmazújvárosi Városi Sportpálya in Balmazújváros.