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Karcag SE vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Karcag SE
Karcag SE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
4/14/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 24Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Karcag SE62%
×Draw20%
Gyöngyös18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karcag SE
2.19
Gyöngyös
1.11

Karcag SE creates 97% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 43 away

creates per match

Karcag SE
1.98
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Karcag SE
1.08
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw
82%
Karcag SE or Gyöngyös
80%
Draw or Gyöngyös
38%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+
39%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals
89%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
64%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
37%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
67%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
30%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)
77%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.19

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Karcag SE scores more
62%
level
20%
Gyöngyös scores more
18%

Karcag SE at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karcag SE vs Gyöngyös

Karcag SE beat Gyöngyös 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep in Tiszafüred.