Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karcag SE vs Cigand SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Karcag SE
Karcag SE
FT
0 – 3
Cigand SE
Cigand SE
3/17/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 20Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Karcag SE46%
×Draw24%
Cigand SE30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karcag SE
1.68
Cigand SE
1.33

Karcag SE creates 26% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

creates per match

Karcag SE
1.98
Cigand SE
1.58

allows per match

Karcag SE
1.08
Cigand SE
1.38

finishing

Karcag SE+0.00on par
Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karcag SE ↓

Cigand SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Karcag SE or draw
70%
Karcag SE or Cigand SE
76%
Draw or Cigand SE
54%

Winning margin

Karcag SE wins by 2+
24%
Cigand SE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Karcag SE 1+ goals
81%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
50%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
24%
Cigand SE 1+ goals
74%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
38%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karcag SE (draw refunded)
60%
Cigand SE (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karcag SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karcag SE attack 1.98 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.68

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + Karcag SE defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karcag SE scores more
46%
level
24%
Cigand SE scores more
30%

Karcag SE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karcag SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karcag SE vs Cigand SE

Cigand SE beat Karcag SE 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Lipcsey Elemér Sporttelep in Tiszafüred.