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Karbinci vs FK Rabotnicki — Cup 2020

Karbinci
Karbinci
FT
0 – 16
HT: 0 – 9
FK Rabotnicki
FK Rabotnickiadvanced
D. Hodja 90', 83'
L. Zhaku 70', 67'
T. Nikolovski 63', 7'
X. Asani 61', 28'
J. Boshnakov 46'
D. Elezi 45'
M. Angelov 43'
C. Daley 40', 18'
F. Kadriu 25'
J. Mecinovic 22'
B. Demiri 20'
8/26/2025CupCup · Round of 32Igralište AMS Karbinci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karbinci1%
×Draw2%
FK Rabotnicki98%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbinci
0.56
FK Rabotnicki
6.31

FK Rabotnicki creates 1027% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Karbinci
0.25
FK Rabotnicki
3.63

allows per match

Karbinci
9.00
FK Rabotnicki
0.88

finishing

Karbinci+0.00on par
FK Rabotnicki+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbinci ↓

FK Rabotnicki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–24%
0–38%
0–412%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–34%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (12%) · grid covers 44% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Karbinci or draw
2%
Karbinci or FK Rabotnicki
98%
Draw or FK Rabotnicki
99%

Winning margin

Karbinci wins by 2+
0%
FK Rabotnicki wins by 2+
93%

Team goals

Karbinci 1+ goals
43%
Karbinci 2+ goals
11%
Karbinci 3+ goals
2%
FK Rabotnicki 1+ goals
100%
FK Rabotnicki 2+ goals
98%
FK Rabotnicki 3+ goals
91%

Draw no bet

Karbinci (draw refunded)
1%
FK Rabotnicki (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbinci at home — creates 0.25, concedes 9.00 · 4 matches

FK Rabotnicki away — creates 3.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbinci attack 0.25 + FK Rabotnicki defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.56

FK Rabotnicki attack 3.63 + Karbinci defence 9.00 → ÷2 → 6.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

Karbinci scores more
1%
level
2%
FK Rabotnicki scores more
98%

FK Rabotnicki at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "FK Rabotnicki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
T. Nikolovski
18'
C. Daley
20'
B. Demiri
22'
J. Mecinovic
25'
F. Kadriu
28'
X. Asani
40'
C. Daley
43'
M. Angelov
45'
D. Elezi
46'
J. Boshnakov
61'
X. Asani
63'
T. Nikolovski
67'
L. Zhaku
70'
L. Zhaku
83'
D. Hodja
90'
D. Hodja

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Karbinci 0–16 FK Rabotnicki

FK Rabotnicki beat Karbinci 16-0 in Cup on August 26, 2025.

Goals: T. Nikolovski (7', 63'), C. Daley (18', 40'), B. Demiri (20'), J. Mecinovic (22'), F. Kadriu (25'), X. Asani (28', 61'), M. Angelov (43'), D. Elezi (45'), J. Boshnakov (46'), L. Zhaku (67', 70'), D. Hodja (83', 90').

The match was played at Igralište AMS Karbinci in Karbinci.