Karbala 0–0 Naft Maysan: Result & Stats

Karbala

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Maysan

5/22/2024

Iraqi League · Round 30Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Karbala36%

×Draw28%

Naft Maysan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarbalaExpected goals in this matchNaft Maysan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

Karbala

1.19

Naft Maysan

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 112 away

1.07

creates per match

1.06

1.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Karbala

1.07

Naft Maysan

1.06

allows per match

Karbala

1.32

Naft Maysan

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karbala+0.00on par

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbala ↓

Naft Maysan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Karbala or draw

64%

Karbala or Naft Maysan

72%

Draw or Naft Maysan

64%

Winning margin

Karbala wins by 2+

15%

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Karbala 1+ goals

70%

Karbala 2+ goals

33%

Karbala 3+ goals

12%

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

70%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

33%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karbala (draw refunded)

50%

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbala at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbala attack 1.07 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Karbala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Karbala scores more

36%

level

28%

Naft Maysan scores more

36%

Karbala at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Karbala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff