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Karbala vs Naft Al-Janoob — Iraqi League 2020

Karbala
Karbala
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
12/1/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 9Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Karbala37%
×Draw29%
Naft Al-Janoob34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbala
1.16
Naft Al-Janoob
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

creates per match

Karbala
1.07
Naft Al-Janoob
0.88

allows per match

Karbala
1.32
Naft Al-Janoob
1.24

finishing

Karbala+0.00on par
Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbala ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Karbala or draw
66%
Karbala or Naft Al-Janoob
71%
Draw or Naft Al-Janoob
63%

Winning margin

Karbala wins by 2+
15%
Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karbala 1+ goals
69%
Karbala 2+ goals
32%
Karbala 3+ goals
11%
Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
67%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
30%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Karbala (draw refunded)
52%
Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbala at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbala attack 1.07 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Karbala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Karbala scores more
37%
level
29%
Naft Al-Janoob scores more
34%

Karbala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Karbala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Karbala 2–1 Naft Al-Janoob

Karbala beat Naft Al-Janoob 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.