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Karbala vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2020

Karbala
Karbala
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
5/10/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Karbala33%
×Draw29%
Al Najaf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbala
1.04
Al Najaf
1.15

Al Najaf creates 11% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 112 away

creates per match

Karbala
1.07
Al Najaf
0.97

allows per match

Karbala
1.32
Al Najaf
1.00

finishing

Karbala+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbala ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karbala or draw
62%
Karbala or Al Najaf
71%
Draw or Al Najaf
67%

Winning margin

Karbala wins by 2+
13%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karbala 1+ goals
65%
Karbala 2+ goals
28%
Karbala 3+ goals
9%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
68%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
32%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Karbala (draw refunded)
46%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbala at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbala attack 1.07 + Al Najaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Najaf attack 0.97 + Karbala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karbala scores more
33%
level
29%
Al Najaf scores more
38%

Al Najaf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Karbala 2–1 Al Najaf

Karbala beat Al Najaf 2-1 in Iraqi League on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.