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Karbala vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Karbala
Karbala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
12/29/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Karbala39%
×Draw28%
Al Minaa Basra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbala
1.23
Al Minaa Basra
1.09

Karbala creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

creates per match

Karbala
1.07
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Karbala
1.32
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Karbala+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbala ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Karbala or draw
68%
Karbala or Al Minaa Basra
72%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
61%

Winning margin

Karbala wins by 2+
17%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Karbala 1+ goals
71%
Karbala 2+ goals
35%
Karbala 3+ goals
13%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
66%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
30%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Karbala (draw refunded)
55%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbala at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbala attack 1.07 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Karbala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karbala scores more
39%
level
28%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
32%

Karbala at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Karbala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Karbala 1–2 Al Minaa Basra

Al Minaa Basra beat Karbala 2-1 in Iraqi League on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.