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Karbala vs Al Diwaniya — Iraqi League 2020

Karbala
Karbala
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
2/19/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Karbala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Karbala49%
×Draw26%
Al Diwaniya24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbala
1.48
Al Diwaniya
0.95

Karbala creates 56% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

creates per match

Karbala
1.07
Al Diwaniya
0.58

allows per match

Karbala
1.32
Al Diwaniya
1.88

finishing

Karbala+0.00on par
Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbala ↓

Al Diwaniya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Karbala or draw
76%
Karbala or Al Diwaniya
74%
Draw or Al Diwaniya
51%

Winning margin

Karbala wins by 2+
25%
Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karbala 1+ goals
77%
Karbala 2+ goals
43%
Karbala 3+ goals
19%
Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
61%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
25%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Karbala (draw refunded)
67%
Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbala at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 57 matches

Al Diwaniya away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbala attack 1.07 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Diwaniya attack 0.58 + Karbala defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Karbala scores more
49%
level
26%
Al Diwaniya scores more
24%

Karbala at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Karbala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karbala vs Al Diwaniya

Karbala beat Al Diwaniya 3-1 in Iraqi League on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Karbala Stadium in Karbala.