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Karbach vs Salmrohr — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Karbach
Karbach
FT
1 – 4
Salmrohr
Salmrohr
11/24/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Kunstrasenplatz Gondershausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Karbach48%
×Draw22%
Salmrohr31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
1.99
Salmrohr
1.57

Karbach creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 16 away

creates per match

Karbach
1.79
Salmrohr
1.38

allows per match

Karbach
1.77
Salmrohr
2.19

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
Salmrohr+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Salmrohr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
69%
Karbach or Salmrohr
78%
Draw or Salmrohr
52%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
27%
Salmrohr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
86%
Karbach 2+ goals
59%
Karbach 3+ goals
32%
Salmrohr 1+ goals
79%
Salmrohr 2+ goals
46%
Salmrohr 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
61%
Salmrohr (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

Salmrohr away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + Salmrohr defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.99

Salmrohr attack 1.38 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Karbach scores more
48%
level
22%
Salmrohr scores more
31%

Karbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karbach vs Salmrohr

Salmrohr beat Karbach 4-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 24, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Gondershausen in Gondershausen.