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Karbach vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Karbach
Karbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
11/12/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 16Kunstrasenplatz Karbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Karbach50%
×Draw23%
Mülheim-Kärlich27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
1.83
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.30

Karbach creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 24 away

creates per match

Karbach
1.79
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.83

allows per match

Karbach
1.77
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.88

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
73%
Karbach or Mülheim-Kärlich
77%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
50%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
28%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
84%
Karbach 2+ goals
54%
Karbach 3+ goals
28%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
73%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
37%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
65%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karbach scores more
50%
level
23%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
27%

Karbach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Karbach 2–0 Mülheim-Kärlich

Karbach beat Mülheim-Kärlich 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Karbach in Karbach.