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Karbach vs Mechtersheim — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Karbach
Karbach
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Mechtersheim
Mechtersheim
5/13/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 8Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karbach69%
×Draw16%
Mechtersheim15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
2.90
Mechtersheim
1.30

Karbach creates 123% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Karbach
3.20
Mechtersheim
1.20

allows per match

Karbach
1.40
Mechtersheim
2.60

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Mechtersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
85%
Karbach or Mechtersheim
84%
Draw or Mechtersheim
31%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
49%
Mechtersheim wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
94%
Karbach 2+ goals
78%
Karbach 3+ goals
54%
Mechtersheim 1+ goals
73%
Mechtersheim 2+ goals
37%
Mechtersheim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
82%
Mechtersheim (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 3.20 + Mechtersheim defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.90

Mechtersheim attack 1.20 + Karbach defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Karbach scores more
69%
level
16%
Mechtersheim scores more
15%

Karbach at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Promotion Round: Karbach 4–1 Mechtersheim

Karbach beat Mechtersheim 4-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg in Karbach.