Karbach 6–1 Kaiserslautern II: Result & Stats

Karbach

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kaiserslautern II

5/27/2023

Oberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 10Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karbach74%

×Draw14%

Kaiserslautern II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarbachExpected goals in this matchKaiserslautern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.20

Karbach

3.10

Kaiserslautern II

1.20

Karbach creates 158% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

3.20

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Karbach

3.20

Kaiserslautern II

1.00

allows per match

Karbach

1.40

Kaiserslautern II

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Kaiserslautern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Karbach or draw

88%

Karbach or Kaiserslautern II

86%

Draw or Kaiserslautern II

26%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+

55%

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals

95%

Karbach 2+ goals

81%

Karbach 3+ goals

58%

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

70%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

34%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)

86%

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 3.20 + Kaiserslautern II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Kaiserslautern II attack 1.00 + Karbach defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Karbach scores more

74%

level

14%

Kaiserslautern II scores more

12%

Karbach at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff