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Karbach vs Gonsenheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Karbach
Karbach
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Gonsenheim
Gonsenheim
10/7/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 16Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Karbach36%
×Draw22%
Gonsenheim41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karbach
1.68
Gonsenheim
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

creates per match

Karbach
1.79
Gonsenheim
1.83

allows per match

Karbach
1.77
Gonsenheim
1.56

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par
Gonsenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Gonsenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Karbach or draw
59%
Karbach or Gonsenheim
78%
Draw or Gonsenheim
64%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+
18%
Gonsenheim wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals
81%
Karbach 2+ goals
50%
Karbach 3+ goals
24%
Gonsenheim 1+ goals
83%
Gonsenheim 2+ goals
54%
Gonsenheim 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)
47%
Gonsenheim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

Gonsenheim away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + Gonsenheim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Gonsenheim attack 1.83 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karbach scores more
36%
level
22%
Gonsenheim scores more
41%

Gonsenheim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gonsenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karbach vs Gonsenheim

Gonsenheim beat Karbach 4-3 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg in Karbach.