Karbach 3–3 Diefflen: Result & Stats

Karbach

FT

3 – 3

Diefflen

3/25/2023

Oberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 1Kunstrasenplatz Karbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Karbach83%

×Draw10%

Diefflen7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarbachExpected goals in this matchDiefflen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.00

1.20

Karbach

4.00

Diefflen

1.20

Karbach creates 233% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

3.20

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

4.80

creates per match

Karbach

3.20

Diefflen

1.00

allows per match

Karbach

1.40

Diefflen

4.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par

Diefflen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Diefflen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Karbach or draw

93%

Karbach or Diefflen

90%

Draw or Diefflen

17%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+

67%

Diefflen wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals

98%

Karbach 2+ goals

90%

Karbach 3+ goals

73%

Diefflen 1+ goals

70%

Diefflen 2+ goals

34%

Diefflen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)

92%

Diefflen (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Diefflen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 3.20 + Diefflen defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 4.00

Diefflen attack 1.00 + Karbach defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Karbach scores more

83%

level

10%

Diefflen scores more

7%

Karbach at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff