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Diefflen vs Karbach — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Diefflen
Diefflen
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Karbach
Karbach
11/4/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Stadion Babelsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Diefflen48%
×Draw21%
Karbach31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diefflen
2.17
Karbach
1.71

Diefflen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 60 away

creates per match

Diefflen
2.28
Karbach
1.58

allows per match

Diefflen
1.83
Karbach
2.07

finishing

Diefflen+0.00on par
Karbach+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diefflen ↓

Karbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Diefflen or draw
69%
Diefflen or Karbach
79%
Draw or Karbach
52%

Winning margin

Diefflen wins by 2+
28%
Karbach wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Diefflen 1+ goals
89%
Diefflen 2+ goals
64%
Diefflen 3+ goals
36%
Karbach 1+ goals
82%
Karbach 2+ goals
51%
Karbach 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Diefflen (draw refunded)
61%
Karbach (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diefflen at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.83 · 78 matches

Karbach away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diefflen attack 2.28 + Karbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

Karbach attack 1.58 + Diefflen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Diefflen scores more
48%
level
21%
Karbach scores more
31%

Diefflen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Diefflen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diefflen vs Karbach

Diefflen beat Karbach 6-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Babelsberg in Dillingen.