Karbach 3–2 Arminia Ludwigshafen: Result & Stats

Karbach

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Arminia Ludwigshafen

11/11/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 21Sportstätten auf dem Quintinsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Karbach42%

×Draw21%

Arminia Ludwigshafen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarbachExpected goals in this matchArminia Ludwigshafen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.82

Karbach

1.98

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 79 away

1.79

creates per match

1.87

1.77

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Karbach

1.79

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.87

allows per match

Karbach

1.77

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karbach+0.00on par

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karbach ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Karbach or draw

64%

Karbach or Arminia Ludwigshafen

79%

Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen

58%

Winning margin

Karbach wins by 2+

23%

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Karbach 1+ goals

86%

Karbach 2+ goals

59%

Karbach 3+ goals

31%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

84%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

54%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Karbach (draw refunded)

54%

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karbach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.77 · 62 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karbach attack 1.79 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.98

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Karbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Karbach scores more

42%

level

21%

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

36%

Karbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff