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Karaorman vs Voska Sport — Second League 2019

Karaorman
Karaorman
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
8/20/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Karaorman17%
×Draw21%
Voska Sport61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaorman
0.93
Voska Sport
1.97

Voska Sport creates 112% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Karaorman
0.93
Voska Sport
2.47

allows per match

Karaorman
1.47
Voska Sport
0.93

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw
39%
Karaorman or Voska Sport
79%
Draw or Voska Sport
83%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+
6%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals
61%
Karaorman 2+ goals
24%
Karaorman 3+ goals
7%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
86%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
58%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)
22%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Karaorman scores more
17%
level
21%
Voska Sport scores more
61%

Voska Sport at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Karaorman 0–2 Voska Sport

Voska Sport beat Karaorman 2-0 in Second League on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.