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Karaorman vs Vardar Negotino — Second League 2019

Karaorman
Karaorman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vardar Negotino
Vardar Negotino
8/26/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 3Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karaorman47%
×Draw23%
Vardar Negotino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaorman
1.77
Vardar Negotino
1.35

Karaorman creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Karaorman
0.93
Vardar Negotino
1.24

allows per match

Karaorman
1.47
Vardar Negotino
2.60

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par
Vardar Negotino+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Vardar Negotino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw
71%
Karaorman or Vardar Negotino
77%
Draw or Vardar Negotino
53%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+
26%
Vardar Negotino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals
83%
Karaorman 2+ goals
53%
Karaorman 3+ goals
26%
Vardar Negotino 1+ goals
74%
Vardar Negotino 2+ goals
39%
Vardar Negotino 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)
62%
Vardar Negotino (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Vardar Negotino away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Vardar Negotino defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Vardar Negotino attack 1.24 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karaorman scores more
47%
level
23%
Vardar Negotino scores more
29%

Karaorman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karaorman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaorman vs Vardar Negotino

Karaorman beat Vardar Negotino 2-0 in Second League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.