Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karaorman vs Sloga Vinica — Second League 2019

Karaorman
Karaorman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloga Vinica
Sloga Vinica
2/26/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karaorman45%
×Draw26%
Sloga Vinica29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaorman
1.48
Sloga Vinica
1.12

Karaorman creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Karaorman
0.93
Sloga Vinica
0.77

allows per match

Karaorman
1.47
Sloga Vinica
2.02

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par
Sloga Vinica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Sloga Vinica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw
71%
Karaorman or Sloga Vinica
74%
Draw or Sloga Vinica
55%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+
22%
Sloga Vinica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals
77%
Karaorman 2+ goals
43%
Karaorman 3+ goals
19%
Sloga Vinica 1+ goals
67%
Sloga Vinica 2+ goals
31%
Sloga Vinica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)
61%
Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Sloga Vinica away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Sloga Vinica defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sloga Vinica attack 0.77 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karaorman scores more
45%
level
26%
Sloga Vinica scores more
29%

Karaorman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karaorman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Karaorman 2–0 Sloga Vinica

Karaorman beat Sloga Vinica 2-0 in Second League on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.