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Karaorman vs Osogovo — Second League 2019

Karaorman
Karaorman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Osogovo
Osogovo
11/4/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karaorman40%
×Draw26%
Osogovo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaorman
1.40
Osogovo
1.25

Karaorman creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Karaorman
0.93
Osogovo
1.02

allows per match

Karaorman
1.47
Osogovo
1.86

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par
Osogovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Osogovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw
66%
Karaorman or Osogovo
74%
Draw or Osogovo
60%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+
19%
Osogovo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals
75%
Karaorman 2+ goals
41%
Karaorman 3+ goals
17%
Osogovo 1+ goals
71%
Osogovo 2+ goals
36%
Osogovo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)
55%
Osogovo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Osogovo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Osogovo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Osogovo attack 1.02 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Karaorman scores more
40%
level
26%
Osogovo scores more
34%

Karaorman at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karaorman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaorman vs Osogovo

Karaorman beat Osogovo 2-0 in Second League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.