Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karaorman vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Karaorman
Karaorman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ohrid
Ohrid
4/8/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 23Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karaorman33%
×Draw28%
Ohrid39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaorman
1.09
Ohrid
1.20

Ohrid creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

creates per match

Karaorman
0.93
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

Karaorman
1.47
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw
61%
Karaorman or Ohrid
72%
Draw or Ohrid
67%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+
13%
Ohrid wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals
66%
Karaorman 2+ goals
30%
Karaorman 3+ goals
10%
Ohrid 1+ goals
70%
Ohrid 2+ goals
34%
Ohrid 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)
46%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ohrid attack 0.93 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Karaorman scores more
33%
level
28%
Ohrid scores more
39%

Ohrid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Karaorman 1–0 Ohrid

Karaorman beat Ohrid 1-0 in Second League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.