Karaorman 0–0 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Karaorman

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

3/19/2023

Second League · Round 21Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karaorman34%

×Draw28%

Kozuv Gevgelija38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaraormanExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.18

Karaorman

1.11

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 81 away

0.93

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Karaorman

0.93

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Karaorman

1.47

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw

62%

Karaorman or Kozuv Gevgelija

72%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

66%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+

14%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals

67%

Karaorman 2+ goals

30%

Karaorman 3+ goals

10%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

69%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

33%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)

48%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karaorman scores more

34%

level

28%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

38%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff