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Karaorman vs Bashkimi Kumanovo — Second League 2019

Karaorman
Karaorman
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bashkimi Kumanovo
10/21/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 9Gradska Plaža Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karaorman30%
×Draw29%
Bashkimi Kumanovo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaorman
1.00
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.22

Bashkimi Kumanovo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Karaorman
0.93
Bashkimi Kumanovo
0.97

allows per match

Karaorman
1.47
Bashkimi Kumanovo
1.07

finishing

Karaorman+0.00on par
Bashkimi Kumanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaorman ↓

Bashkimi Kumanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karaorman or draw
59%
Karaorman or Bashkimi Kumanovo
71%
Draw or Bashkimi Kumanovo
70%

Winning margin

Karaorman wins by 2+
11%
Bashkimi Kumanovo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Karaorman 1+ goals
63%
Karaorman 2+ goals
26%
Karaorman 3+ goals
8%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 1+ goals
70%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 2+ goals
34%
Bashkimi Kumanovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Karaorman (draw refunded)
42%
Bashkimi Kumanovo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaorman at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Bashkimi Kumanovo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaorman attack 0.93 + Bashkimi Kumanovo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Bashkimi Kumanovo attack 0.97 + Karaorman defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karaorman scores more
30%
level
29%
Bashkimi Kumanovo scores more
41%

Bashkimi Kumanovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bashkimi Kumanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaorman vs Bashkimi Kumanovo

Bashkimi Kumanovo beat Karaorman 2-1 in Second League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Gradska Plaža Stadium in Struga.