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Karaman FK vs Yozgatspor 1959 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaman FK
Karaman FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yozgatspor 1959
Yozgatspor 1959
8/28/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundKemal Kaynaş Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Karaman FK38%
×Draw27%
Yozgatspor 195936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaman FK
1.31
Yozgatspor 1959
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Karaman FK
1.29
Yozgatspor 1959
0.83

allows per match

Karaman FK
1.71
Yozgatspor 1959
1.33

finishing

Karaman FK+0.00on par
Yozgatspor 1959+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaman FK ↓

Yozgatspor 1959 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karaman FK or draw
64%
Karaman FK or Yozgatspor 1959
73%
Draw or Yozgatspor 1959
62%

Winning margin

Karaman FK wins by 2+
17%
Yozgatspor 1959 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Karaman FK 1+ goals
73%
Karaman FK 2+ goals
38%
Karaman FK 3+ goals
14%
Yozgatspor 1959 1+ goals
72%
Yozgatspor 1959 2+ goals
36%
Yozgatspor 1959 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karaman FK (draw refunded)
51%
Yozgatspor 1959 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaman FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Yozgatspor 1959 away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaman FK attack 1.29 + Yozgatspor 1959 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Yozgatspor 1959 attack 0.83 + Karaman FK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karaman FK scores more
38%
level
27%
Yozgatspor 1959 scores more
36%

Karaman FK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karaman FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Karaman FK 1–0 Yozgatspor 1959

Karaman FK beat Yozgatspor 1959 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on August 28, 2018.

The match was played at Kemal Kaynaş Stadı in Karaman.