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Karaman FK vs Kahta 02 Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaman FK
Karaman FK
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Kahta 02 Spor
Kahta 02 Spor
9/8/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundKemal Kaynaş Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Karaman FK41%
×Draw23%
Kahta 02 Spor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaman FK
1.73
Kahta 02 Spor
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Karaman FK
1.29
Kahta 02 Spor
1.50

allows per match

Karaman FK
1.71
Kahta 02 Spor
2.17

finishing

Karaman FK+0.00on par
Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaman FK ↓

Kahta 02 Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Karaman FK or draw
64%
Karaman FK or Kahta 02 Spor
77%
Draw or Kahta 02 Spor
59%

Winning margin

Karaman FK wins by 2+
21%
Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Karaman FK 1+ goals
82%
Karaman FK 2+ goals
52%
Karaman FK 3+ goals
25%
Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals
80%
Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals
47%
Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Karaman FK (draw refunded)
54%
Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaman FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Kahta 02 Spor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaman FK attack 1.29 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kahta 02 Spor attack 1.50 + Karaman FK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Karaman FK scores more
41%
level
23%
Kahta 02 Spor scores more
36%

Karaman FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karaman FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaman FK vs Kahta 02 Spor

Kahta 02 Spor beat Karaman FK 5-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 8, 2021.

The match was played at Kemal Kaynaş Stadı in Karaman.