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Karaman FK vs Etimesgut SK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaman FK
Karaman FK
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
9/26/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKemal Kaynaş Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karaman FK47%
×Draw23%
Etimesgut SK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaman FK
1.77
Etimesgut SK
1.35

Karaman FK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Karaman FK
1.29
Etimesgut SK
1.00

allows per match

Karaman FK
1.71
Etimesgut SK
2.25

finishing

Karaman FK+0.00on par
Etimesgut SK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaman FK ↓

Etimesgut SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Karaman FK or draw
71%
Karaman FK or Etimesgut SK
77%
Draw or Etimesgut SK
53%

Winning margin

Karaman FK wins by 2+
26%
Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Karaman FK 1+ goals
83%
Karaman FK 2+ goals
53%
Karaman FK 3+ goals
26%
Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
74%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
39%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Karaman FK (draw refunded)
62%
Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaman FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Etimesgut SK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaman FK attack 1.29 + Etimesgut SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

Etimesgut SK attack 1.00 + Karaman FK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karaman FK scores more
47%
level
23%
Etimesgut SK scores more
29%

Karaman FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karaman FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaman FK vs Etimesgut SK

Etimesgut SK beat Karaman FK 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Kemal Kaynaş Stadı in Karaman.