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Karaman FK vs Esenler Erokspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaman FK
Karaman FK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
12/5/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundYeni Karaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Karaman FK34%
×Draw23%
Esenler Erokspor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaman FK
1.48
Esenler Erokspor
1.69

Esenler Erokspor creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Karaman FK
1.29
Esenler Erokspor
1.67

allows per match

Karaman FK
1.71
Esenler Erokspor
1.67

finishing

Karaman FK+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaman FK ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Karaman FK or draw
57%
Karaman FK or Esenler Erokspor
77%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
66%

Winning margin

Karaman FK wins by 2+
16%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Karaman FK 1+ goals
77%
Karaman FK 2+ goals
43%
Karaman FK 3+ goals
19%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
82%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
50%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Karaman FK (draw refunded)
44%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaman FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaman FK attack 1.29 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.67 + Karaman FK defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Karaman FK scores more
34%
level
23%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
43%

Esenler Erokspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaman FK vs Esenler Erokspor

Esenler Erokspor beat Karaman FK 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Yeni Karaman Stadyumu in Karaman.