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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Siirt İl Özel İdaresi — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
9/11/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFaruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor55%
×Draw22%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.96
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
1.19

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.29
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
1.38

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.00
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
1.63

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
77%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
78%
Draw or Siirt İl Özel İdaresi
45%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
32%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
86%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
58%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
31%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi 1+ goals
70%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi 2+ goals
33%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
71%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 2.29 + Siirt İl Özel İdaresi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.96

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi attack 1.38 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
55%
level
22%
Siirt İl Özel İdaresi scores more
23%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Siirt İl Özel İdaresi

Siirt İl Özel İdaresi beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.