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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Kızılcabölükspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kızılcabölükspor
Kızılcabölükspor
9/28/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFaruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor70%
×Draw17%
Kızılcabölükspor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.52
Kızılcabölükspor
1.00

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 152% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.29
Kızılcabölükspor
1.00

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.00
Kızılcabölükspor
2.75

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Kızılcabölükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Kızılcabölükspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
87%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Kızılcabölükspor
83%
Draw or Kızılcabölükspor
30%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
48%
Kızılcabölükspor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
92%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
71%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
45%
Kızılcabölükspor 1+ goals
63%
Kızılcabölükspor 2+ goals
26%
Kızılcabölükspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
84%
Kızılcabölükspor (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Kızılcabölükspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 2.29 + Kızılcabölükspor defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.52

Kızılcabölükspor attack 1.00 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
70%
level
17%
Kızılcabölükspor scores more
13%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Karaköprü Belediyespor 2–0 Kızılcabölükspor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Kızılcabölükspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.