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Karaköprü Belediyespor vs Hakkari Zapspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
FT
7 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Hakkari Zapspor
Hakkari Zapspor
E. Karadeniz 90'
G. Demirel 85'
M. E. Yavas 58', 42'
H. Peksen 55'
Y. Alemdar 44'
C. M. Vural 8'
I. Dincer 77'
9/2/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundFaruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor85%
×Draw10%
Hakkari Zapspor5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karaköprü Belediyespor
3.15
Hakkari Zapspor
0.67

Karaköprü Belediyespor creates 370% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
2.29
Hakkari Zapspor
0.33

allows per match

Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.00
Hakkari Zapspor
4.00

finishing

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par
Hakkari Zapspor+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karaköprü Belediyespor ↓

Hakkari Zapspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Karaköprü Belediyespor or draw
95%
Karaköprü Belediyespor or Hakkari Zapspor
90%
Draw or Hakkari Zapspor
15%

Winning margin

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
67%
Hakkari Zapspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
96%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
81%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
59%
Hakkari Zapspor 1+ goals
49%
Hakkari Zapspor 2+ goals
15%
Hakkari Zapspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
94%
Hakkari Zapspor (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karaköprü Belediyespor at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Hakkari Zapspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 2.29 + Hakkari Zapspor defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.15

Hakkari Zapspor attack 0.33 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
85%
level
10%
Hakkari Zapspor scores more
5%

Karaköprü Belediyespor at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Karaköprü Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
C. M. Vural
42'
M. E. Yavas
44'
Y. Alemdar
55'
H. Peksen
58'
M. E. Yavas
77'
I. Dincer
85'
G. Demirel
90'
E. Karadeniz
Karaköprü
Hakkari
Ahmet Yavuz
Manager: Ahmet Yavuz
M. Özdemir
Manager: M. Özdemir

Türkiye Kupası: Karaköprü Belediyespor 7–1 Hakkari Zapspor

Karaköprü Belediyespor beat Hakkari Zapspor 7-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 2, 2025.

Goals: C. M. Vural (8'), M. E. Yavas (42', 58'), Y. Alemdar (44'), H. Peksen (55'), I. Dincer (77'), G. Demirel (85'), E. Karadeniz (90').

The match was played at Faruk Çelik Spor Kompleksi in Şanlıurfa.